St. Elmo's Fire - Why the All Blacks will win

Never before in the history of the Abs and Springboks rivalry have the “boks been awarded such status and respect than they have had ever since arriving into the country 10 days ago. They have been called all sorts of glamorous names with the media going as far as acknowledging their rightful status as the current “world champions.”

There has always been an overwhelming pressure that the Abs must and should win every game comfortably and convincingly over the years. Rugby being the be all and end all in this country , nothing short of outright victory and not just victory but victory with flair is demanded from the madding and staunch supporters of this team for they determine the social mood on a day to day and year to year basis in New Zealand. Some might say the Abs are their worst enemy since their 80% winning record (this is over 100 years of test rugby which is a remarkable feat in any sport) ensures that the public demands nothing but perfection.

Never mind that the advent of professionalism has meant that other richer countries are willing to invest exponential resources into the game than the New Zealand economy could ever provide. The public still demands winning and one wonders how much pressure this team of 22 somewhat ordinary kiwis will be able to absorb in order to deliver the right result consistently. I have been listening carefully and reading between the lines this week and the media here are playing a crucial part in the build up to this first test. As Luke pointed out (pretty insightful by the way) the media are giving the 'Boks the respect they deserve as current world champions simply because the last 3 games the ABs have played have unfortunately not given anyone a barometer of where the ABs stand on hierarchical scale so there is so much caution as the Springboks are essentially an unknown quantity.

Add to the fact that the ABs have lost perhaps the best ball fetcher in the history of the game has led many to nearly bursting a coronary in this country. You can literally feel the tension mounting in this country and quite frankly no one is too optimistic about the chances of the ABs this weekend. Its an almost surreal feeling and some people are half expecting it to happen. This only further illustrates the importance of Richie but also exposes the ABs lack of competetnt replacements(not even the rotation policy has yielded anyone suitable)

You get the sense that if the ABs win this weekend , they will be blown up into the stratosphere with somewhat biblical evangelical praise for their "miraculous conquering of the world champions". Should they fail, they will be lauded as brave warriors who on the day just didnt have the experience to beat a good world champion team. As far as the media goes, the is a set up of infinite proportions as rightly pointed out by Luke. This and only this could be the 'Boks undoing.

While there is alot of hesitation and many a people are refusing to make predictions about this weekend, I as a staunch follower of the ABs (which I had to be remined by Ryan actually)lieve the ABs will win and they will win comfortably by 10+ points! Brave statements you might say but after I am done you will see the what, the where, the when and the how my boys will come up trumps. PdV rightly pointed out that rugby was invented in England but perfected in New Zealand. It would be fair to say that the ELVs are in their feotal stage and historically we all know that New Zealand players have are adept at exploiting law changes and adapting their game while also quickly maximising their returns efficiently. This game (regardless of the weather) will be won in the backs and not the forwards. The 'Boks will certainly be keen to keep the ball within the confines of the big fellows and use the boot to keep the ABs in their half, then put pressure and force mistakes ( and pray for intercept passes). The boys will have more than an edge at the breakdown and their physicall presence will be felt so they will keep it tight and use Butch often( infact I wouldnt mind looking at his kick pass run stats at the end of the game). If you think tha he kicks a lot during normal playing conditions , you aint seen nothing yet.

The ABs well, they are going to have to take a chance , bank on their skills and throw that ball around as much as they can. The key will be to keep the ball moving all the time, avoiding pile ups and playing an almost OGs touch like tactic( got your shirt, Cowden). Their fitness levels will be up for it and they wont want to embarass themselves infront of a full capacity but iwll also want to do Richie proud. Carter's kicking accuracy will be crucial both tactically and at goals. You get the feeling that in the forecasted conditions each team will get few chances to score and we all know how accurate the ABs can be in turning linebreaks into tries.

The 'Boks will give it heaps but my boys will come through albeit with a bruise or two. It will not by anu means be a stroll in the park but rest assured it will be a well earned victory none the less. Should my boys lose , i will gain solace in the fact that they played out of their skin but were just not good enough to beat the World Champions on the day! Ka Mate!