Friday, July 4, 2008

St. Elmo's Fire - Why the All Blacks will win

Never before in the history of the Abs and Springboks rivalry have the “boks been awarded such status and respect than they have had ever since arriving into the country 10 days ago. They have been called all sorts of glamorous names with the media going as far as acknowledging their rightful status as the current “world champions.”

There has always been an overwhelming pressure that the Abs must and should win every game comfortably and convincingly over the years. Rugby being the be all and end all in this country , nothing short of outright victory and not just victory but victory with flair is demanded from the madding and staunch supporters of this team for they determine the social mood on a day to day and year to year basis in New Zealand. Some might say the Abs are their worst enemy since their 80% winning record (this is over 100 years of test rugby which is a remarkable feat in any sport) ensures that the public demands nothing but perfection.

Never mind that the advent of professionalism has meant that other richer countries are willing to invest exponential resources into the game than the New Zealand economy could ever provide. The public still demands winning and one wonders how much pressure this team of 22 somewhat ordinary kiwis will be able to absorb in order to deliver the right result consistently. I have been listening carefully and reading between the lines this week and the media here are playing a crucial part in the build up to this first test. As Luke pointed out (pretty insightful by the way) the media are giving the 'Boks the respect they deserve as current world champions simply because the last 3 games the ABs have played have unfortunately not given anyone a barometer of where the ABs stand on hierarchical scale so there is so much caution as the Springboks are essentially an unknown quantity.

Add to the fact that the ABs have lost perhaps the best ball fetcher in the history of the game has led many to nearly bursting a coronary in this country. You can literally feel the tension mounting in this country and quite frankly no one is too optimistic about the chances of the ABs this weekend. Its an almost surreal feeling and some people are half expecting it to happen. This only further illustrates the importance of Richie but also exposes the ABs lack of competetnt replacements(not even the rotation policy has yielded anyone suitable)

You get the sense that if the ABs win this weekend , they will be blown up into the stratosphere with somewhat biblical evangelical praise for their "miraculous conquering of the world champions". Should they fail, they will be lauded as brave warriors who on the day just didnt have the experience to beat a good world champion team. As far as the media goes, the is a set up of infinite proportions as rightly pointed out by Luke. This and only this could be the 'Boks undoing.

While there is alot of hesitation and many a people are refusing to make predictions about this weekend, I as a staunch follower of the ABs (which I had to be remined by Ryan actually)lieve the ABs will win and they will win comfortably by 10+ points! Brave statements you might say but after I am done you will see the what, the where, the when and the how my boys will come up trumps. PdV rightly pointed out that rugby was invented in England but perfected in New Zealand. It would be fair to say that the ELVs are in their feotal stage and historically we all know that New Zealand players have are adept at exploiting law changes and adapting their game while also quickly maximising their returns efficiently. This game (regardless of the weather) will be won in the backs and not the forwards. The 'Boks will certainly be keen to keep the ball within the confines of the big fellows and use the boot to keep the ABs in their half, then put pressure and force mistakes ( and pray for intercept passes). The boys will have more than an edge at the breakdown and their physicall presence will be felt so they will keep it tight and use Butch often( infact I wouldnt mind looking at his kick pass run stats at the end of the game). If you think tha he kicks a lot during normal playing conditions , you aint seen nothing yet.

The ABs well, they are going to have to take a chance , bank on their skills and throw that ball around as much as they can. The key will be to keep the ball moving all the time, avoiding pile ups and playing an almost OGs touch like tactic( got your shirt, Cowden). Their fitness levels will be up for it and they wont want to embarass themselves infront of a full capacity but iwll also want to do Richie proud. Carter's kicking accuracy will be crucial both tactically and at goals. You get the feeling that in the forecasted conditions each team will get few chances to score and we all know how accurate the ABs can be in turning linebreaks into tries.

The 'Boks will give it heaps but my boys will come through albeit with a bruise or two. It will not by anu means be a stroll in the park but rest assured it will be a well earned victory none the less. Should my boys lose , i will gain solace in the fact that they played out of their skin but were just not good enough to beat the World Champions on the day! Ka Mate!

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Is Now The Time For The Boks?

‘Is Now the Time for the Springboks?’
Turmoil and trouble in the New Zealand Camp leading to the test match on Saturday as opposed to excitement, calm and most importantly confidence in the South African Camp.

With all the All Black changes from last years team and the controversial re-selection of Graham Henry, I will say this, If there was ever a year when the All Black’s can be beaten at home it is 2008. Ireland realised this but could not capitalise on that to O’driscoll’s dismay. After walking all over England, which turned out to be trial games for positions in what seems to be a ‘regular’ starting 22 man squad which Graham Henry had been hugely criticized for in their previous tenure, the new All Blacks face their toughest test yet in 2008.

The Springboks on the other hand opted for a new coach in Peter de Villiers and he wisely took on Gary Gold and Dick Muir as assistants. Muir is largely seen as a serious contender for the top job in the future and Gold played a formidable role in the revival of the Stormers and Western Province rugby prior to and during Rassie Erasmus’s term as head coach. De Villiers has had a winning start in 2008 playing two tests against Wales and a once off against Italy, giving himself enough opportunities to try players indifferent positions in preparation for the Tri-Nations. So far so good but now the real games begin when the World Champions play New Zealand and try and do something they have failed for the last ten years and that is to win on New Zealand Soil.

The psychological battle that the Springboks previously had when facing the All Blacks has diminished and you could say that it is no longer there, and the All Blacks have had nothing but praise for the Springboks. From Politicians praising them a the Prime Minister’s Reception on Wednesday night to several experienced players giving the due respect and expecting one of the hardest games they have played since donning the black jersey. Moving on to the battle on the field…let me just say that this is a mouth watering encounter that is not to be missed and it is going to come down to the finer details from team selection to preparation and that extra second delay getting to the breakdown.

Looking at the battles on the field the guys upfront they have a serious match-up on their hands but I would give this one to the All Blacks and scrum time and the Springboks in the Line-out. Both tight fives are mobile in the loose and with the uncertainty of Ali Williams it may just tip the scales in the Springbok’s favour. The Loosies, well this is going to be where the game is won or lost. The breakdown area is going to be the integral part of the game and it has shown to be so in the Super 14 and with the internationals. The Northern Hemisphere sides were totally cleaned at the breakdown in the international friendly matches played in June and South Africa, New Zealand and Australia all hogged possession because of that. This is just one visible area of the game that the Experimental Law Variations (ELVs) have made a difference.

It is no secret that without Richie McCaw playing the All Blacks are vulnerable at the breakdown and this should spark further confidence to the Springbok Camp. This bring in Adam Thomson relatively unknown in this part of the World and after his debut performance against England, he looks like he could be New Zealand’s ace up the sleeve but how well will he handle his first test against the World Champion Springboks?

Looking at the loose forwards head to head the Springboks have a serious upper hand. They have their two best flanks in Burger and Smith, who are among the best in World rugby, and the current in form number 8 in Joe van Niekerk who has shown new found passion and drive and will be a serious threat. Between Burger (40), Smith (45) and van Niekerk (47) they share 132 caps compared to Thompson (2), Kaino (4) and So’oialo (44) who share 50. The experience in incomparable and it will most definitely play a role in the first couple of minutes and settling down into the game as well as in decision making throughout the game.

The battle of the backs will see the team that is given enough ball to play with be more dominant. The key words in that sentence where ‘given enough ball’. If both backlines have the confidence to play their natural game and not get pressured to change their style, then the backs with greater supply of the ball will definitely create more chances. This year the All Blacks have shown a very fruitful conversion rate from the ball they have been provided. Their execution and timing has been the key and they have been looking solid.

The Springboks have also been scoring well and putting together some good plays and the inform attacking players are Jantjes, de Villiers, Jacobs and Habana who has found some form and gained confidence since the start of the Super 14. Defensively I still have question marks in both midfields in Ma’a Nonu for the All Blacks and in Adrian Jacobs or the Springboks and there is no doubt they will both have their hands full marking Jean de Villiers and Conrad Smith respectively. The back three will play crucial roles in bad weather as there will be a lot of kicking and I have no doubt the Springboks will put early pressure on Rudi Wulf playing only his second test for the All Blacks but he is more than capable under the high ball although his kicking is not the greatest. The same applies for Odwa Ndugane, twin brother to World Cup Champion Akona Ndugane who is travelling to New Zealand with the Springboks for the first time and if the New Zealanders are aware of this they will do well to test him early in the game.

All in all it looks to be the Springboks who are the favourites to win but with the All Blacks under Graham Henry being unbeaten at home in 30 matches it will not be easy. The Springboks are far more experienced, they have had a good couple of weeks to prepare without too many issues, they have their inspirational captain who is highly respected by all and they have confidence going into the game. The All Blacks have been talking up the Springboks and praising them left, right and centre and you wonder if this will work for or against them. They could elevate the Springboks to a point where they have too much respect for them, or all the talk could get to the Springboks and they may think the game is theirs prematurely but with a captain like Smit I doubt he will allow that. It’s going to be one not to miss!!

Friday, June 20, 2008

St. Elmo's Fire

The way I see it, the poms want to play the ABs at their own game this weekend, which is a huge mistake. Looking at the backs they have brought in, it appears they want to not only beef up their D but also to play some running rugby. The two midfield backs they are fielding this weekend are accomplished ball carriers so obviously the idea is to match the ABs style pound for pound. Never the less I think this is calamitous as they dont have the manpower nor the history of playing expansive rugby and they would be doing this at their own peril.

Infact I think they will realise the folly of their tactic early on and then play the game at a snails pace and hope to frustrate the ABs int o doing the same. They cant attack the ABs scrum at anytime because hello hello Tony Woodcock is on the bench this weekend so no hope there. If anything they might try distort the new midfield combination and yes I too like so many peops here have my doubts about Kahui's ability to last even 60 min. That stinking word "rotation" which we all thought had gone with the World Cup seems to have re emerged with Henry choosing yet again to break what was becoming some good combinations. Never the less alot of these players need to be blooded before the tri-nations so quite frankly the dude has no options.

Personally I have my doubts about Adam Thomson's defensive abilities but fitness wise he will live up to his billing. Its a quesstion of whether he will foot the physicality of the game. Rudi Wulf is brilliant under the high ball, a good chaser of pressure kicks but may be found wanting in his ball clearance abilities. Good to see Leon out there as he was the form Fullback in S14. He has never been spectacular ala Cully, but very solid and consistent especially on his home turf.

I hope the lineout has been sorted out coz thats always been a weakness.

Moving on, I am salivating at the Wallabies/France game this weekend(which I cant believe my fellow scribe didnt even mention). We all know how unpredictable the French are and if last weekend is anything to go by, the French will throw the ball around like there is no tomorrow. I have always found the biggest weakness with any Wallabies team is their sort of almost forced regimented style of rugby ala Brumbies style where every player knows where they should be at every breakdown. The Wallabies hate teams that throw the ball around and I think as a team their fitness levels are worrying to say the least. The French would do well to attack their scrum which I must say was not that impressive at all. I know its ealry days in Deans' reign but you just cannot teach an old dog new tricks and those forwards were found wanting at set piece and in general play.

The Wallabies , well they will do their thing play their scripted rugby and maybe throw the casual offload. If there is one thing Deans has to work on, its their improptu rugby ( the stuff ya just cannot teach players).

Weekend Match Preview

NZ vs ENG part2

Ok this is going to be a very good game to watch and I think it will be a nervous one for the Abs but I think they will take it. The battle ground is Christchurch and the conditions will hopefully be similar to last week. England have had a terrible week of preparation with all the distraction of the field with the rape charges but we all know things like this can motivate a side especially if the allegations are false, but either way it will no doubt affect the team. Starting with the backs they have bulked up the midfield defence with Noon and Flood (who is a natural centre) and have sacrificed ball players and kickers in Hogdson and Barkely. Not to say the new guys are not ball players, in fact I think Flood is one of the best distributors of the ball and he is not a bad kicker.

The Abs have stuck with the same 9, 10 and 12 which I think is key besides the fact that I think Ellis had an average game with the ball last week his work rate off the ball was very impressive almost like a 3rd flank. Henry has put faith in Kahui and lets hope he lasts the game without injury coz that boy is seriously injury prone. He D is impressive so Tindell will be iced and his distribution is what made Siti and Flash look so good for the chiefs, I do worry about his footwork and I don’t know him to carry the ball much, I may be wrong. Macdonald is back at 15 and I think from his stint last weekend he is rearing to go.Him and Wulf will be the secret weapons as the England backs will focus on Nonu, Carter and Siti. Wulf has his critics and the stage is set for him to answer them I think its time this youngster turned it up because the potential is there. I would like to see him increase his work load and make some runs in the midfield off the inside backs ala Howlett coz if he gets through he is gone.

The Forwards once again will be the deciding factor although Sheridan is out, which is a big loss for the poms, the have brought in replacements (who I don’t know) but I am sure they will look to that area of the game to dominate the all blacks. They did well in spoiling all blacks ball in part 1 and they read the set pieces very well but failed to make anything of it. They decided to try and throw it around a bit too late in the game and that is not their natural game plan so it failed. I think they would have been drilled hard this week and try and give the back some good front foot ball, kick in the corners and keep it tight.

The Abs have changed things around and besides all his critics I am happy to see So’oialo staying in the squad. His time at 6 think was superb he put in some serious workman-like performances and was very effective in the line-outs. He has not had many chances to run with the ball but when he has he has done the basics well and been an effective link, but he will get a bit of ball in hand now which I am sure he is looking forward to. Elmo’s boy Somerville is back also nice to see and clearly the 3 wise men are expecting a battle of attrition up front and he who lasts the longest will suffice. The big question is who is Adam Thomson? I know him as the crazy guy from the highlanders who plays with his socks down. He is a pretty tough dude and reminds me of Schalk Burger not as good but with a bit more skill and that John Cena – YOU CAN”T SEE ME - celebration that he does he has a bit more flair. The worry is that there will not have a player to do the grind work that So’oialo has been doing and they may be in a bit of trouble in the lose, hence the significance of having Ellis.

Finally (eish! It was supposed to be short) I think it will be a lot closer and it will demand much more from the players than the last but I think the Abs will take it…Oh by the way I am loving Keven leading the Haka he proper looks and sounds the part.

Monday, March 10, 2008

St Elmo's Fire

QUESTIONS

After all the sporting drama over the weekend, which has sent fans and sporting scribes into complete confusion, I felt compelled to crouch, touch , pause and engage in a series of very pertinent questions which need to be answered and yet ironically the answers, after last weekend's sporting debacle can only be found within the sportsmen themselves in the coming weeks and months of 2008.

Question: Are the New Zealand S14 sides as strong as we assumed the were after the first 3 rounds?...........

Question: Are the Blues about to choke again after a very strong start? Ryan Dube your thoughts?............

Question: Who had the better game DC or Matt Giteau?

Question: is it just me or is DC playing some pretty average ( by his standards of course) footy?......

Question: Are the Highlanders going to lose every game by a bonus point margin?....

Question: What are the chances of Wales completing the Grand Slam?.....

Question: Should Rio Ferdinand be considered for the position of Goalie for Man U after he correctly geussed and made a reasonable attempt at saving that penalty?.....

Question: Whats happened to Mens tennis as a global game?........

Question: Does USA need a new basketball hero because it seems every other nationality is muscling in on their marketing turf?.......

Question: Finally, Ryan Dube you thoughts on Tiger completing the Grand Slam of golf this year and if not, who will stop him?........

Ponder away me lads but like I said only time will tell!

My Shocker of a weekend!!!

It all started on Saturday morning watching the Cheetahs rattle the cage of the Chiefs in the Super 14 by going 17 - 0 up at half time. They ended up losing 22 - 20 but it was much closer than expected. I should have known then that there were some upsets on the horizon. Switching codes I decided to watch the soccer and as the time ticked on and both Manchester United and Chelsea missed chance after chance, and calls for penalties in both games that could have gone either way were turned down, they were both knocked out of the F.A Cup by unfavoured Portsmouth (1 - 0)and the so called 'Giant Killers', division one Barnsely (1 - 0) respectively.

To my disbelief Middelsborough were also booted out by Cardiff and Westbrom are through to the semi-finals after thumping Bristol 5 - 1. This leaves Portsmouth as hot favourites for the F.A Cup, I must it is a nice surprise for the minnows and I guess thats what the F.A Cup is all about good for them.

Back to my Saturday afternoon and switching back to rugby my eyes almost popped out when the Auckland Blues were down 19 - 0 at half time and we all know that the Shark tank has become some what of a fortress and they are one side who have mastered the art of defending their lead. Although the Blues had their chances, they struggled to convert and could not adapt to the humidty of Durban and their sweaty palms as well as the Sharks defence forced error after error Sharks taking it 22 - 17.

By now my heart is in overload with all the adreline and axcitement of all these close encouters, and i am thinking to myslef this kind of entertainment compete's with any thriller I have watched. Their were so many shocks on Saturday and by the time the evening came it was calming to watch a bit of golf and see Stewart Cink take a four shot lead at the Tampa Bay Championship in Florida.

Nice early Sunday morning still recovering from a pulsating Saturday in sport and it was like deja vu when I saw relative newcomers the Western Force stun 6 time Super rugby Champions the Cantebury Crusaders, in the final Super 14 fixtures, with some enterprizing rugby and creative interplay to take a 12pt lead in the match. The Crusaders were eventual winners (29 - 24) in game that went to the wire and the Force were always in it.

Another mid-morning thriller leaving me in a state and as slouched on the couch and watched Arsenal take on Wigan in the Premier League. I had no idea that I would be on the edge of me seat again in the dying minutes as Arsenal scrambled for a winner but failed (0 - 0) and ended up reliquishing a chance to go five clear of Manchester United in a race for the title...remember I asked 'Who is it going to be?'.

Right all done enough before I have a slight heart attack no more shocks please...but then as I was falling asleep watching golf the it started all over again. Stewart Cink gave up his four shot lead which I had seen him with on Saturday to Stumbling to a six-way tie for second place. Nick O'hair who was three shots back of Cink at the start of the final day won the Championship by two shots.

And finally my SHOCKER of a weekend was over.

Thursday, March 6, 2008

Who is it going to be??

After an exciting weekend of sport last weekend that gave me a serious high, I was still coming down on Monday and hence there was no story. It was incredible and I must say the Super 14 is looking good for a couple of New Zealand sides and very ominous for the SA sides with the Aussies rebuilding and floating around the middle as they do.

Moving away from rugby this week we take a look into the world of soccer. And the big question is who is it going to be? In the Premier League the men have made a clear break-away from the boys and its race to the title for Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea. The question I pose once again is who is it going to be, I am not referring to which team will take the lead and snatch the title I am referring to which team is going to choke and slip up in the last 10 games of the season.

We have not had a title race like this in some years now and it has been two teams battling it out and then one runs away with it. But the way the top 3 sides are playing and the hunger and determination for success shown by all three teams I can see this one going to the wire with all three clubs and the league will be decided by in the fixtures where they meet each other.

The FA Cup is coming to a close and after Manchester United handed Arsenal a serious drubbing of a lesson on BMT I can only see them and Chelsea as hot favourites but don't count out the others as weirder things have happened. The Champions League is also getting rid of the pretenders and the next round looks set up for all four sides from England to be there, pending Liverpool vs Inter next week, but if they (Liverpool) can't seal the deal there then they really need to consider Benitez's tactics but my money is on them to win next week.

Its all very exciting right now and I must say this is why we watch the beautiful game.